While every voter in Oregon will help decide this year’s ultra-competitive three-way race for governor, it is the voters in Marion and Polk counties, particularly those in Salem, who will likely determine whether Oregon’s new chief executive will work with Democratic or Republican majorities in the upcoming legislative session.
Currently, Oregon is one of 14 states with a Democratic trifecta: that is, when one party controls the governorship, the state Senate, and the state House of Representatives. This has been the case in Oregon since Democrats regained sole control of the House of Representatives in the 2012 general election, after sharing power with Republicans for two years, when the chamber was evenly split: 30 Democrats and 30 Republicans.
For the past decade, Democratic majorities have been able to collaborate with Democratic governors to achieve virtually every policy goal of legislative leadership. For the past four years, Democrats in the legislature have enjoyed supermajorities in both chambers, meaning one party controls three-fifths of the chamber’s seats. All revenue-raising bills must pass with a three-fifths supermajority, something Democrats have achieved on their own during recent legislative sessions.
But this year, the situation looks a little different. This is due to several contributing factors, most notably the decadal redistricting process and what appears to be a national political climate favorable to change. Democrats are defending not only their control of the Oregon governorship but also their legislative majorities, and voters in and around Salem will play a pivotal role in the outcome of this election due to the number of competitive districts in Marion and Polk counties. Each of these districts favors Democrats based on voter registration, but it is the unaffiliated voters (NAV) who constitute the majority of voters.
Senate District 10 includes South Salem, West Salem, Monmouth, and Independence. Registered Democrats represent 33% of the district’s voters. Republicans represent 25%. The remaining 42% includes NAVs, members of the Independent Oregon Party, and members of minor parties. This race pits incumbent Senator Deb Patterson (Democrat) against her challenger, Representative Raquel Moore-Green (Republican). Historically, this Senate seat has been held by Republicans, long represented by Salem legislator Jackie Winters, who passed away in office in 2019. Senator Patterson narrowly won a special election held in 2020 to fill the final two years of Senator Winters’ term.
Since each Oregon Senate district is made up of two corresponding House congressional districts, both are also competitive. House District 19 contains the South Salem portion of SD10, while HD20 includes West Salem, Monmouth, and Independence. HD19 is 32% Democratic, 24% Republican, and 44% other. As mentioned above, incumbent Rep. Moore-Green is running for Senate, so this House district is an open seat, with two familiar faces to Salem voters, both current or former Salem City Council members: Tom Andersen (D) versus TJ Sullivan (R). In the race for HD 20, which is 33% Democratic, 26% Republican, and 41% Other, four-term incumbent Paul Evans (D) faces challenger Dan Farrington (R).
Senate District 11 is the other highly competitive district that Marion County voters will decide, comprised of HD21 (Keizer and parts of Salem) and HD22 (Woodburn, Gervais, and parts of Salem). SD 11, which is 29% D, 23% R, and 48% O, has historically been a safe seat for Democrats, in part because of district lines, but also because this is the seat of a longtime Salem icon, Senate President Peter Courtney. It marks the first time in over 30 years that President Courtney will not be on the ballot. He is retiring as Oregon’s longest-serving state legislator and Senate President. This race features Senator Kim Thatcher (R) against Rich Walsh (D). Senator Thatcher currently represents SD 13, which used to contain the city of Keizer, but is now located in SD 11, which is the main reason the new SD 11 is so competitive.
Kevin Mannix (R) and Ramiro Navarro, Jr. (D) are the candidates for HD21. This district was represented by former Rep. Brian Clem for more than a decade and was not competitive prior to redistricting, but is now 29% D, 25% R, and 46% O, with the addition of Keizer. HD 22 holds the distinction of the most unaffiliated district in the state, with 52% of voters not identifying as Democrats (28% of the district) or Republicans (20%). The incumbent, Rep. Teresa Alonso Leon unsuccessfully ran for Congress this year in the new 6th district, so this state house seat is open and will feature Tracy Cramer (R) v. Anthony Medina (D).
Voters in Marion and Polk County have important decisions to make. Two Senate seats: Democrats cannot lose more than two statewide and still maintain their Senate majority. Four House seats: Republicans need to win a total of seven statewide to split the House evenly, as they did in 2012. If Democrats manage to win in Salem, they should have no trouble maintaining their majorities, possibly even their supermajorities, but if November 8 is a good night for Republicans, Oregon could be on the cusp of a major shift.
Visit www.nfib.com/oregon/voting-record/ to see how Oregon lawmakers voted on small business issues during the 2021-2022 legislative sessions.
